Will Conclave, with Ralph Fiennes, create a surprise at the 2025 Oscars?

This political-religious thriller, based on a successful novel by Robert Harris, is going strong in the USA. Post-American elections, he could soon shine at the Oscars.

Conclave has just been released in France, preceded by a good reputation across the Atlantic. Based on the 2016 novel of the same name by British author Robert Harris (whose work has already been adapted by Roman Polanski with The Ghost Writer Or I accuse), it relates in the form of a thriller the vote organized between Cardinals to elect a new Pope. While respecting the traditions specific to the functioning of the Vatican, the film brings it a certain modernity, playing with the political and societal double meanings of this election system. Shortly after that of Donald Trump, all these themes were able to attract the American public in numbers: since its release there in October, the Focus Features film has earned more than 30 million dollars.

A high score for “middle production”explain Variety, Conclave being neither an independent film, nor a blockbuster, nor the continuation of a saga already popular in the eyes of the public. Its budget is estimated at $20 million, excluding advertising, and it is intended for an adult audience, not families or young spectators, recalls the American site. Only a handful of works of this type have been able to cross the 20 million mark at the American box office in 2024: Longlegs and its 74 million American revenues, Civil War (68 million), Terrify 3 (53 million), Love in the present (24 million)… Either horror, war or dramatic films, where Conclave turns out to be very entertaining under his guise of “serious film.” Several sequences quickly became memes, like these shots of the Cardinals smoking/vaping. As for its final twist, which we won't spoil here, it caused a lot of noise, particularly in the United States.

Conclave, with a Ralph Fiennes of the great days as Hercule Poirot of the Vatican [critique]

“I wanted to make a political thriller in the tradition of films from the 1970s, like LThe President's Menbut in a context that I had never seen before, explained to theAFP German director Edward Berger. It seemed essential to me that everything that happens in our society be integrated, the conflicts between left and right, reform and conservatism…”

This director created a surprise last year at the Oscars by winning four statuettes thanks to his pacifist film In the West, nothing newout of no less than nine mentions: best sets, best photography, best film music and best international film. A fame that could well rub off on Conclavewhich is becoming a favorite of the current ceremony season. Since its broadcast at the Telluride festival, it has continued to be acclaimed, and not only for its aspects “techniques”even if his studio reconstruction of the Sistine Chapel is also one of the film's strong points. Variety thus shares several papers evoking his chances at the 2025 Oscarsand suppose that Conclave could get away with a lot of nominations.

Teamwork

On a technical level, Conclave has every chance, and Focus Features understood this, highlighting its visual beauty during its promotion. Since its American release, several shots of the film have been shared on social networks, its editing has been praised, as have its lighting and its sets.

Moreover, the director of this department, Suzie Davies (Saltburn), told how part of the Vatican had been recreated at the Cinecitta, in just ten weeks and down to the smallest detail. Precision work made possible thanks to his complicity with the cinematographer Stéphane Fontaine (A Prophet) or costume designer Lisy Christl (Anonymous, In the West nothing new), with whom she had to collaborate hand in hand. Like when it was necessary to create the rooms of the residence where the Cardinals sleep throughout the Conclave, for example:

“There are not many elements in the rooms inhabited during the Conclave by the Cardinals, Davies explained.. However, we had to understand from the outset that some were better off than others. How did John Lithgow's character manage to get a palatial apartment?, for example. At the end, we realize that he hasn't stopped elbowing, so we can say that he probably paid someone to get this room… On the other hand, it didn't matter. crossed Lawrence's mind that in his time as dean he could have gotten a better room. It's probably on the ground floor, near the elevators…”

Prestigious actors

As for the actors too, the entire team of Conclave is greeted. Ralph Fiennes is particularly acclaimed in Hollywood for his main role, that of the dean of the Cardinals, who investigates surreptitiously while the vote takes place behind closed doors. A sort of Sherlock Holmes in a cassock, who hides a certain insight beneath his very serious exterior, he “lead the dance”exchanging tasty dialogues with all his playing partners: Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, Carlos Diehz, Lucian Msamati, Brian F. O'Byrne… All have at least one opportunity to shine in a supporting role. Without forgetting Isabella Rosselliniwho works behind the scenes as a good sister, and who despite her little screen time (less than 8 minutes), becomes one of the most striking characters in the plot.

If she wins the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress in 2025, it will be her first statuette, despite her notable performances in Blue Velvet (1986), by David Lynch, or in Death suits him so well (1992), by Robert Zemeckis. She would then become the third actress to win this award with so little screen time: Judi Dench and Beatrice Straight both won this Oscar thanks to only five minutes of appearance, respectively in Shakespeare in Love (1998) and Network (1976).

As for Fiennes, he has already been nominated, but not since the 1990s: his performances in Schindle's Listr and The English Patient had earned him a mention, without reward, three decades ago. This year he could face Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) and Daniel Craig (Queer).

A modern scenario

Peter Straughan, already nominated in the best adaptation category for The Taupe (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy), in 2011, will he win his first statuette at the start of the year? With his rich intrigue mixing politics, religion and gender equality, he will undoubtedly not escape a new appointment alongsideEmilia Perezwritten by Jacques Audiard from the book Listen by Boris Razon (2018), orA complete strangerbiopic of Bob Dylan's youth by James Mangold and Jay Cocks. But will it be convincing enough among Christian voters? The question of faith in Hollywood has sometimes borne fruit, but not systematically, recalls Variety taking several examples.

There is of course The Exorcistby William Friedkin, the most successful horror film in history upon its release. If this genre is often shunned by the Academy of Oscars, this example in particular received no less than ten nominations, and two awards: best screenplay and best sound.

Another example, a decade later: Assignmentby Roland Joffé, was mentioned in seven categories, including best film in 1987. He walked away with “only” the price of the picture, perhaps because of its slowness or its failure in theaters? The source assumes that he was “much less mainstream” that Conclavewho could “better to get by thanks to its thriller side.”

More recently, there has obviously been the case of Spotlightby Tom McCarthy, big winner at the 2016 Oscars by being voted both best film and best original screenplay, even though it was inspired by an investigation by Boston Globe uncovering a huge sex scandal in the American Catholic Church. As for the Two popes by Fernando Meirelles, on screens in 2019, it allowed its main actors, Anthony Hopkins and Jonathan Pryce to obtain a nomination each, plus another for his screenplay. Which was not the case for Silenceby Martin Scorsese, generally shunned by the Academy in 2017, which only selected the photography of Rodrigo Pietro – that year, this Oscar went to Linus Sandgren for La La Land.

“This will certainly not be the case Conclave, concludes the influential American mediawhose story is catchy. This behind-the-scenes look at the Vatican moves quickly and offers viewers accessible reflections on religion or politics. He has plenty of potential to be among the winners this year.”

The ball is now in the court of the Academy voters… who will no doubt think of the Cardinals of the film when they slip their ballot into one. Or rather by validating their choices with one click.