White women could be the key voting bloc that secures the 2024 election for Vice President Kamala Harris, CNN data reporter Harry Enten argued Tuesday on the channel.
Recent polls show former President Trump gaining ground among Latino and black voters. However, according to Enten's analysis, the largest group of likely voters, white women, moved away from Trump in battleground states.
A set of polls indicate that Harris is underperforming among white men, women of color, and men of color, compared to voters who supported President Biden in the 2020 election. However, Harris outperforms white women in “a historic degree,” Enten said.
Trump won that voting bloc by seven points in 2020, according to post-election polls taken at the time. Since 2012, the Republican presidential candidate has won the vote of white women. But with less than three weeks until the November election, Trump now holds just a one-point lead among that group, the data guru said.
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“He’s doing the worst — if that holds up — for a Republican candidate this century among white women,” Enten continued.
Harris' lead among white women could ultimately help her win the election, he argued, since they represent 36% of the electorate, according to his analysis.
“Yesterday we were talking about the massive gains Donald Trump made among black men and women. But at the end of the day, they actually make up a considerably smaller share of the electorate than white women,” Enten said.
“So when we're talking about 5, 6 point, 7 point changes in the direction of Kamala Harris, [among White women]”We're talking about this among a significant portion of the electorate and it may actually move the overall electorate more than a huge shift among a considerably smaller portion of the electorate,” he said.
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Polls suggest that abortion is pushing these voters to support the Democratic ticket this election, he said.
According to a New York Times/Siena College survey cited by CNN, abortion is the top voting issue for 27 percent of women in the key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where more than 80 percent of voters are whites.
“I think what we're talking about here is that after Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022, white suburban women, in these key battleground states, turned strongly against Republicans, and we see it in the right-wing polls “Now, because Kamala Harris is doing historically well, at least this century for a Democratic candidate among white women. And of course, they represent a very large part of the electorate,” Enten said.
“If she wins, maybe it will be because she has done very well with white women,” Enten continued.
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