Playbook on House Races to Watch on Election Night

It's pretty clear which states to watch to know whether Democrats or Republicans will control the Senate. Competitions in Ohio, Montana, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are all battlegrounds. But who might control the House is another story.

The path to power is not direct in the House.

A patchwork of districts — stretching from northern Maine to the Alaskan tundra — could decide the House majority.

So on election night, let me decode the signs to interpret which party might sit in the House majority in 2025.

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President Biden delivers his State of the Union address in the U.S. Capitol Chamber on Thursday, March 7, 2024. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

It's a question of mathematics.

Let's start with the current distribution in the House.

There are currently 432 members in the House. 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats. There are three vacancies.

The late Reps. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Tex., and Bill Pascrell, D-N.J., have died. Former Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wisc., resigned. None of these are swing neighborhoods. So, if the House had 435 seats, the split would be 221 Republicans to 214 Democrats. The margin is seven. But Democrats only need a net gain of four seats to take control. Also note that some districts have transformed – notably in North Carolina – due to redistricting. In fact, the Republicans could win several seats on their own.

So here's the onus for Democrats: keep the seats they currently have — and take out a handful by jumping around the map. Also make up the difference from what they'll likely lose in the Tar Heel State. This is not an exhaustive list. But it will give a general atmosphere to the evening.

Here's an early race to watch that might give you an idea of ​​where the House is heading: Maine's 2nd District.

A patchwork of districts — stretching from northern Maine to the Alaskan tundra — could decide the House majority. (Aaron Schwartz/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, faces Republican challenger and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault. It is a massive and rugged rural district that extends north to the Canadian border. Golden is one of the most moderate — and vulnerable — Democrats in the House. Former President Trump won the singular vote by winning this district in 2020. Maine uses a proportional system to divide its electoral votes.

If Golden takes this seat, it could serve as the first canary in the coal mine, indicating that Democrats are in good shape. But if Thériault wins, it could indicate that the House could drift in the other direction.

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Political analysts estimate that Democrats lost the House in New York in 2022. That's ironic because the former chairman of the Democrats' re-election efforts two years ago, former Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, D-N.Y. , was originally from New York. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., is a Brooklyn native. Not to mention Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.

Democrats in the Empire State have the opportunity to make significant progress if they perform well in House races this year. The fact that this is a presidential election could also bolster Democratic performance in New York. Democrats have already won back the seat held by former Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., who was forced out. But Democrats are looking to defeat freshman Reps. Anthony D'Esposito, RN.Y., Mike Lawler, RN.Y., Marc Molinaro, RN.Y., and Nick LaLota, RN.Y. A clean picture of early results sends the message that Democrats are performing very well on the evening of November 5. Democrats will be disappointed if they don't win at least three of these seats.

Virginia is also a place where both sides have pickup opportunities. A scan to either side might reveal the general direction of the night.

Freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., faces Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smasal in the Tidewater area. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., is retiring to run for governor next year. Democrat Eugene Vindman faces Republican Derrick Anderson to succeed Spanberger. The parties could split these races, making Virginia a wash.

Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., attends a news conference with Republican leaders on Capitol Hill September 18, 2024, in Washington, D.C. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur, Democrat of Ohio, and freshman Rep. Emilia Sykes, Democrat of Ohio, are both defending battleground districts in a state expected to overwhelmingly support Mr. Trump. The fact that Republican vice presidential nominee and Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, is from the Buckeye State could influence voter turnout. It's a boon if the Republicans can unseat Kaptur or Sykes. And Republicans could expect a grand slam if both Democrats lose. However, Kaptur is the longest-serving woman in the history of the House. Republicans have been trying to defeat it for years. It is far from certain that they will be able to do it this year.

Democrats also have a chance to win a redrawn seat in Alabama. A federal court has ruled that Alabama violated the Voting Rights Act by packing black voters into a district with a single black majority. The court ruled that Alabama must reorganize its congressional maps, transforming what was once a Republican district into one favorable to Democrats. Shomari Figures hopes to win this district for Democrats.

In Iowa, Democrats are eyeing two seats — although winning either could prove difficult. One seat pits Democrat Lanon Baccam against Rep. Zach Nunn, R-Iowa. Democrats also hope Christina Bohannan can unseat sophomore Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa. Miller-Meeks won in 2020 by just six votes. But Miller-Meeks won by seven points in 2022. Democrats would have the chance to eliminate Nunn or Miller-Meeks. But they definitely believe Bohannan has a real chance to topple Miller-Meeks.

In Colorado, Rep. Yadira Caraveo, D-Colo., won her first term by about 2,000 votes. She faces Republican challenger Gabe Evans. But it is believed that a good performance at the top of the table in the Colorado blue could help Caraveo.

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In New Mexico, freshman Rep. Gabe Vasquez, D-N.M. is in a rematch with former Rep. Yvette Harrell, R-N.M. This neighborhood is one of the most dynamic in the country and worth keeping an eye on. Former Rep. Xochitl Torres Small, D-N.M., flipped that district in 2018 after former Rep. Steve Pearce, R-N.M., ran for governor. Harrell then defeated Torres Small in 2020. However, Vasquez returned the district to Democrats in 2022. Harrell hopes to return the favor this fall.

In addition to New York, it is in California that the Democrats also hope to make up significant ground. It doesn't hurt that the Democratic presidential nominee represented the Golden State in the Senate and served as its attorney general. Additionally, a Senate race could increase Democratic turnout. Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., is running against former Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres star Steve Garvey.

Democrats are hoping to unseat Reps. John Duarte, R-Calif., David Valadao, R-Calif., Mike Garcia, R-Calif., Ken Calvert, R-Calif., and Michelle Steel, R-Calif. They represent each of the battlefield districts. Duarte won his race in an upset final cycle by fewer than 600 votes. Democrats unseated Valadao in 2018. But he returned to Congress in 2020.

Additionally, three other races could indicate whether this is a Democratic or Republican night.

In Oregon, freshman Rep. Lori Chavez-Deremer, R-Ore., is running against Democrat Janelle Bynum. Bynum defeated Chavez-Deremer in previous presidential elections. If Chavez-Deremer holds his own, that could be a positive sign for the Republican Party.

Janelle Bynum is a Democrat running for Congress from Oregon. (Janelle Bynum for Congress)

Meanwhile, freshman Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash., was the biggest surprise of the last election cycle. She won over Republican Joe Kent by about 2,000 votes. Gluesenkamp Perez and Kent face off again. The district was Republican before the last cycle. But Kent is believed to have veered too far right, courting former President Trump and pro-MAGA forces. This race could be a bellwether for how well the MAGA message resonates.

Finally, control of the House could depend on Alaska.

Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, won this at-large seat after the death of Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska in 2022. Young represented the state in the House for nearly half a century. However, Peltola was never on the ballot at the same time as former President Trump. Mr. Trump beat President Biden by ten points here in 2020.

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If Peltola prevails, this victory on the solid ground of the Republican Party could go a long way to helping Democrats flip the House.

But because many of these races can be close, it may be impossible to guess which party controls the House for a while. Two years ago, you had to wait until mid-November.