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Join Telegram ChannelAs the US presidential election approaches, the cryptocurrency market is still volatile and in a state of anticipation, with many people expecting the election results to have a significant impact on price movements.
However, analysts at Bernstein Research have made a bold prediction: Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, regardless of the election results.
US Election as a Catalytic Factor for Bitcoin
The upcoming election is expected to impact short-term market dynamics, with many speculating that the election outcome could influence the direction of Bitcoin prices. Historically, Bitcoin has shown resilience and growth after each US presidential election, and analysts predict that this trend may continue. If past patterns continue, Bitcoin is expected to reach new levels within a year after the election.
Looking back at previous US elections, Bitcoin's value has consistently increased. In 2012, following the re-election of President Obama, the price of Bitcoin jumped from around $11 to more than $1,100 in a year. A similar increase occurred after the 2016 election, when Bitcoin rose from $700 to nearly $18,000 in December 2017. In 2020, amidst the pandemic, Bitcoin surged by 478%, peaking at $69,000 in late 2021. In March 2024, the cryptocurrency even hitting a new high above $73,000.
However, although Bitcoin has consistently shown upward momentum after each election, the magnitude of the price spikes has diminished over time. The growth percentage in each cycle has decreased, with the first post-election rally seeing a 12,000% increase, followed by a 3,600% increase, and a 478% jump in 2020. Based on these trends, Bernstein analysts expect smaller, but still substantial growth , a rise of around 47.8%, which could take Bitcoin to around $103,500 by Q4 2025.
Room for Further Growth
Despite the decline in profits seen in the previous cycle, analysts believe Bitcoin is still undervalued compared to the previous cycle. The cryptocurrency is currently trading well below its previous peak, especially following the market downturn in November 2022, following the collapse of FTX, and the Bitcoin halving event in April 2023. According to Bernstein, this “discounted” price presents a significant growth opportunity for Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin has done its job and is unlikely to return to its previous trajectory,” said analysts at Bernstein. “Our target for Bitcoin by the end of 2025 remains $200,000, regardless of who wins the US election.”
Factors such as US fiscal policy, rising national debt and monetary expansion are expected to drive demand for risk assets such as Bitcoin. The Bernstein analyst also highlighted the increasing role of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the US, which could give the market ample room for growth.
Election Impact: Trump vs. Harris
As the election results become clearer, the impact on Bitcoin prices may vary depending on the outcome. Bernstein analysts predict that if Donald Trump wins, Bitcoin could break its previous all-time high of around $74,000 and rise to $80,000-$90,000 before his inauguration day on January 20, 2025. Conversely, if Vice President Kamala Harris wins, Bitcoin's price could fall to around $50,000 —although this figure is still higher than the previous estimate of $30,000-$40,000.
Amid market fluctuations, analysts continue to monitor election data in real-time. Trump's odds of winning have decreased slightly on decentralized prediction platforms like Polymarket, but Trump is still the favorite with a 57.9% chance compared to Harris' 42.1%. However, national opinion poll data is still limited, indicating tight competition.
Bitcoin Mining and Long Term Growth
Beyond election results, Bitcoin mining is also expected to experience significant growth, regardless of who wins the presidency. With increasing interest in artificial intelligence and the energy potential of Bitcoin mining, this sector is likely to grow. Chhugani, a cryptocurrency analyst, noted that mining policies could increase investor confidence, and the regulatory environment for blockchain technologies such as Ethereum and Solana will be critical in shaping the future of digital assets.
Chhugani stressed that bipartisan support for cryptocurrencies, particularly from the SEC, will be critical to the continued growth of the market. While Trump has been a vocal supporter of pro-crypto policies, Harris has shown interest in holdings but lacks detailed plans for the sector.
Conclusion
Although the US election may provide short-term volatility for the cryptocurrency market, analysts at Bernstein remain confident in the long-term prospects for Bitcoin. Given the historical trend of post-election growth, the potential for Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by 2025 seems reasonable, driven by macroeconomic factors, increasing institutional interest, and continued adoption of cryptocurrency products such as Bitcoin ETFs.
Whether Trump or Harris wins, Bitcoin's fundamental appeal as a hedge against inflation and fiscal instability, alongside increasing adoption and regulatory clarity, positions it for significant long-term growth.