Montana Senate poll finds Democratic incumbent trailing GOP challenger, with Senate control in balance

A new poll shows Republicans are likely to take control of the Senate in the upcoming election, with the GOP challenger leading against the Democratic incumbent in Montana.

Republican challenger Tim Sheehy leads Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester in a 52% to 44% matchup, according to a New York Times/Sienna poll released Thursday. Democrats currently hold a 51-seat majority in the Senate, and the decision by Sen. Joe Manchin, I-W.V., to retire virtually guarantees a GOP seat.

Although there are competitive races elsewhere in the Senate, Republicans appear to be holding on, according to Marist polling. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, leads his race with 51% support, compared to 46% from his challenger, Collin Allred.

Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., faces a tighter race in Florida, where he holds a slim 50-48 percent lead over challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

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Republicans appear poised to take control of the Senate in the 2024 congressional battle.

That story is reversed, however, in Ohio, where Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown holds a 50-48 percent lead over his Republican challenger Bernie Moreno.

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THE Cook Political Report also moved Wisconsin's Senate race from “lean Democratic” to “toss-up” this week.

Sen. Joe Manchin's retirement presents a major opportunity for Republicans to gain access to the Senate.

The Handicapper cited changes in polls in recent days, with Republican challenger Eric Hovde appearing close the gap with outgoing Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin.

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Marquette's Last Law School the survey showed Baldwin won the battle, 51% to Hovde's 45%. The survey questioned 882 registered voters from September 18-26. The poll's margin of error was +/-4.4 percentage points.

Republican challenger Eric Hovde and Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin are engaged in a tight race for Wisconsin Senate. (Reuters)

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Most recent Fox News Power Rankings As of last month, Wisconsin was at “Leans Dem.”

Julia Johnson of Fox News contributed to this report