Premier League Predictions: Villa to win | Goals will continue to be a problem for Chelsea | football news

Play Super 6 to win £1 million! Highlights from each Premier League game will be shown on the Sky Sports website and app shortly after full time; watch Tottenham vs Man Utd, Aston Villa vs Everton, West Ham vs Chelsea and Crystal Palace vs Arsenal live on Sky Sports

By Lewis Jones, football journalist

7:34 AM UK Sunday 20 August 2023

Our resident tipster and betting guru Jones Knows is back to provide his advice and analysis on the Premier League undercard.

Aston Villa vs Everton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Aston Villa vs Everton, live on Sky Sports

To use some horse racing methodology, you can always forgive a horse for a bad race if there were legitimate excuses that day. That’s the best way to treat Villa’s opening-day thrashing at Newcastle, where Tyrone Mings’ injury certainly affected his pace and they ran into some serious animal opposition at St James’ Park. With Everton still fighting for goals, those who play out the home win at 4/6 on Sky Bet should see a return on their investment as Villa look to make it eight wins in a row at Villa Park.

I expect Everton to have their moments though, as they have averaged 14 shots per away game in the last seven days away from home. This potentially makes the versatile Alex Iwobi interesting for a shot on goal in Evens on Sky Bet. He is replacing the injured Dwight McNeil on the left and managed four shots, two of which were on target against Fulham, as his tendency to slice through his stronger right foot opened up plenty of shooting opportunities.


West Ham vs Chelsea, Sunday 4:30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Reece James’ hamstring injury really is a blow to anyone feeling good vibes in Mauricio Pochettino’s team this season. There was a lot to like about his performance against Liverpool, especially in terms of his defensive setup, offering just one shot on goal to the Reds’ attack, which is usually a tear. I have an early season theory that Chelsea will be very hard to beat, but also very hard to win as their goal-scoring problems persist and key creative forces like James are out.

That should lend itself to low-scoring games, making the 5/2 with Sky Bet a runner-up here for under 1.5 goals against a West Ham side who won’t give much away either.

Ben Chilwell is a player to monitor and return through the attacking accessory markets under Pochettino, who allowed his full-back so much attacking license last weekend and required his midfielders to seek that change with every attack.

Such was the aggressiveness of Chilwell, that he was the second best player when analyzing the average positions of the Chelsea team. He scored a shot on goal with a curtain of 0.16 expected goals – it cost him a bad first touch – and he also had a goal disallowed by venturing into a central area. Take your pick on Chilwell to have two or more shots at 11/8, one or more shots on target at 2/1 and 18/1 for him to score first.

Chelsea’s Ben Chilwell scores a goal which was later ruled out by VAR for offside

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0 JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Ben Chilwell will score first (20/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!) and Chilwell will have at least one shot on target (2/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here !)

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal, live on Sky Sports

I’m still not convinced of Arsenal’s ability to challenge for big honours, but Mikel Arteta’s lads are usually very reliable in matches of this banana-skin nature. Their aggregate score against bottom half teams last season was 52-17, losing just twice, narrowly at Everton and Nottingham Forest.

There’s no denying that Roy Hodgson has made an impact: since his first game back, Palace (21) have won more points than Arsenal (18), both from 11 Premier League games. However, a regression is likely to return to a solid mid-table outfit for a team that lacks strength in depth in many positions.

Those wanting to get a little frisky and add to the price of an away win should consider bringing on Gabriel Martinelli to score first in a 2-0 win at 30/1 with Sky Bet. He scored in both starts against Palace last season and ended up their top scorer with 15 Premier League goals. Always exceeding his expected goal return is a very nice trait (15 goals came from just 9.1 xG) in a goalscorer and he seems to be in the mood for an amazing season down that left flank.


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