Glicked: who will win the box office match between Gladiator 2 and Wicked?

Hollywood is hoping for a new Barbenheimer to salvage a gloomy year.

2024 is already a great year for French cinema, thanks in particular to the immense success of our local productions, such as A little something extra And The Count of Monte Cristo (10 and 9 million entries), and Phew Love which has already exceeded the 4 million mark and is preparing to exceed Dune, part two to enter the top 5 of the biggest hits of the year.

In the United States, it is much more complicated. 2024 has been marked by many flops, including the recent crash of Joker 2and the industry hopes to recover in the last weeks of the year. With the dream of a new Barbenheimer: Glickedor the confrontation between Gladiator 2the sequel to Ridley Scott's cult epic, and Wickedthe adaptation of the musical prequel to The Wizard of Oz.

These two blockbusters are released this weekend across the Atlantic, and we already know the winner of the duel. According to predictions relayed by the American press, Wicked will establish itself with 100 to 110 million dollars in revenue. The buzz and marketing surrounding Jon M. Chu's film, starring Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo, could even push the score to $130 million, according to Variety. A huge figure whereas previous estimates placed it in the range of 80 to 85 million.

Gladiator 2 promises to be a magnificent loser. Despite its Rated R rating (the film is prohibited for unaccompanied minors under 17), the blockbuster led by Paul Mescal and Denzel Washington should launch around $65 million. Knowing that it has accumulated 87 million revenues in the 63 countries where it has already been released. But the film cost $250 million to produce plus $100 million in marketing and it will have to do better than the first Gladiator (465 million worldwide) to be profitable.

For Hollywood, the main thing is that business wins, and from that point of view this Glicked is already shaping up to be a success. For comparison, in July 2023 barbie had opened with $155 million, and Oppenheimer 80 million.

Especially since in reality it will be a three-way match. Moana 2 will follow in a few days (Wednesday November 27 in the United States, as in France), and the Disney feature film should start with a nice score of 135 million dollars in North America alone.