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Join Telegram ChannelSen. J.D. Vance, who is running on the Republican ticket alongside former President Trump, could help Republicans in “vulnerable Rust Belt states” this cycle, but he may not play as big a role in his home state of Ohio, according to strategists familiar with the campaigns.
Vance is currently the junior senator from Ohio, a state where vulnerable Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is defending his congressional seat in one of the best Republican recruiting opportunities of the cycle.
“I think Trump looked at the map and realized that J.D. Vance could be useful in the vulnerable Rust Belt states, even though it had been rumored to be trending that way for a few weeks,” Mark Penn, a Democratic strategist and CEO of Stagwell Inc., told Fox News Digital of the vice presidential pick.
Penn added that “Rubio could have helped in the Southwest, but Vance will be much more useful in the Midwest.”
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Senator JD Vance and his wife Usha Chilukuri Vance watch his nomination for vice president on the first day of the Republican National Convention at Fiserv Forum on July 15, 2024 in Milwaukee. (Anna Moneymaker)
Charlie Cook, a political analyst and founder of the Cook Political Report, an independent, nonpartisan election forecaster, said that historically, vice presidential picks don't make a big difference in races in their home states.
“People vote for the president, not the vice president. Vice presidential running mates don’t make a lot of difference in or out of their home state,” Cook told Fox News Digital when asked if Vance’s vice presidential nomination could play a role in the Ohio Senate race.
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“I don't think having Vance on the ticket is going to make a big difference in Ohio. If Brown loses, he's probably already on the verge of losing,” he added.
Cook added that he believed Trump chose Vance as his running mate to bolster the MAGA base.
Former President Trump during a campaign event at Trump National Doral Golf Club in Miami, Tuesday, July 9, 2024. (Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“I don’t think Vance was a bad choice, but he was a reinforcement choice rather than an expansion choice. He’s not bringing in new support, he’s just reinforcing what Trump already had,” he added. “I think he was more of a future MAGA leader choice than an ‘I need this guy to get me across the finish line first’ choice.”
“I think the Trump-Vance campaign will put him in a list of states from Pennsylvania to Wisconsin – maybe Minnesota. But I doubt it will have that big of an impact, running mates don't usually do that,” Cook said.
Senator Steve Daines, Republican of Montana and chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Vance could help “win working-class voters” in states like Montana, where Republicans are seeking to oust Democratic Senator Jon Tester.
Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., testifies during the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee hearing titled “Passenger and Freight Rail: The Current State of the Rail System and the Path Forward,” in Russell Building on Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2020. (Tom Williams)
“Republicans want JD Vance to campaign with our Senate candidates, Democrats can't say the same about [Vice President] “Kamala Harris. JD knows how to win over working-class voters and, most importantly, will help Republicans appeal to Democrats who think Democratic policies have become far too radical,” Daines said in a statement.
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Trump revealed Vance as his vice presidential pick on Monday, and the two were officially named to the 2024 Republican ticket on the first night of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.